Why your Shopify store's Q1 2026 performance depends on decisions you make this week

We're now a full month into 2026, and if you're running a Shopify store, you've likely settled into a bit of a Q1 rhythm. Traffic's steadier than January, but likely quieter than Q4. Continuity campaigns are bedding back in after the Q4 bounces and sales have cooled a little.

We’re at the stage where we can see brands split into 2 camps - the ones who are using January and February as a growth springboard; planning strategically and using the lower CPM’s to make strategic moves… and the ones who are waiting it out assuming ‘that’s just how January is.’

You've still got time. But the decisions you make this week will determine whether you enter Q2 with momentum or scrambling to catch up.

Think of February and early March as your last chance to build the foundations before the year accelerates. Valentine's Day, Mother's Day, Easter - the seasonal calendar waits for no one.

This is what we recommend you turn your attention to right now.

1. Turn browsers into buyers

Use those audiences! Remember all those people who visited your site over Black Friday and Christmas but didn't buy? If you haven't retargeted them yet, they're getting colder by the day. But they're still salvageable - and February is your window.

What to do this week:

• Check your Q4 audiences and pull them into your campaigns. Check how many of those November/December sign-ups you've actually contacted in 2026. If the answer is "not many," you're sitting on dormant revenue. Get your Meta and Google retarget campaigns live.

The longer you wait to reactivate Q4 and January traffic, the colder it gets. February is likely your last high-probability window to convert Q4 browsers who already know your brand.

2. Feed it before you need it… aka lots of creative testing!

With Meta's Andromeda roll out the platform is increasingly creative-hungry, (read more) and February's still-reasonable CPMs give you a great window to test before costs spike in March.

What to do this week:

• Create your Valentine's creative NOW (if you haven't already). Get ads live this week. Test at least 3 different hooks to see what resonates.

• Plan your March-April creative calendar. Mother's Day creative should be in production, most launch early March but we have a couple of brands that will go even earlier for the organised gifters. Easter messaging will be hitting soon after. 

• Test 3-5 evergreen concepts at low budget. Strip away the seasonal angle and test messaging that'll work March-May. What you learn now you can iterate on for Q2.

3. Get all over the budget numbers

February is typically a quiet revenue month for e-commerce (yes, even quieter than January in many sectors). But that doesn't mean pulling budget - it means being strategic about where every pound goes.

What to do this week:

• Ring-fence budget for Valentine's/Mothers’ Day if you're running them. Never cannibalise your evergreen campaigns to fund a 4-day push. Either allocate fresh budget or accept you're running Valentine's lean.

• Recalculate your CPA targets for Q1 reality. Your December CPA targets probably aren't realistic in February, but Q1 customers often have higher LTV. Adjust expectations based on customer quality, not just volume.

• Allocate 20-30% to testing and learning. Use this month to test creative concepts and campaign structures that'll inform March-May.

Brands that maintain consistent presence are building warm audiences and functioning campaigns (even on low budgets). Those who go dark have to rebuild everything from scratch.

The bottom line

We're one month into Q1, and the gap between intentional brands and reactive brands is already forming.

The intentional ones used January to build foundations. They're using February to test, refine, and prepare. They'll use March to scale. By Q2, they'll reap the rewards.

The reactive ones are still "waiting for things to pick up." They'll scramble through Valentine's, panic through Mother's Day, and wonder why Q2 feels so hard.

The decisions you make this week will determine which camp you're in.

Need a partner who treats your Q1 budget like their own? We work with Shopify scale-ups ready to turn Q1 from recovery into acceleration. If you’re spending £3k+ monthly but not getting strategic support, let's talk.